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The Conflict Ledger

Bayesian scenario modeling & open-source intelligence synthesis
RISK: — LOADING… —
Scenario Probability Trends
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Live Market Intelligence
Brent Crude
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Natural Gas
—/mmbtu
Gold Spot
—/oz
Bitcoin
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S&P 500
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Dow Jones
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VIX Fear Index
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USD / EUR
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10-Yr Yield
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Tanker Rate
—k/day
Narrative vs Reality — Loading…
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48-Hour Outlook
Generating forward assessment…
Scenario Simulator

This simulator runs the Bayesian model hundreds of times with random variation applied to each variable, based on how confident the AI is in each value. The result is a probability range — not a single point — showing the realistic spread of outcomes given current uncertainty.

Base Case uses today's AI-extracted values. Preset scenarios override specific variables to answer "what if" questions. You can also adjust the Model Inputs sliders on the right and the live preview below will update instantly — then run the simulation to get the full statistical range.

Live Probability Preview — updates as you adjust inputs
Iterations: 500 Scenario:
Inject Breaking News
Describe a news event in plain English. The AI will translate it into model variable changes so you can see how it shifts the probability distribution.
Scenario Analysis
Run a simulation to generate an analytical interpretation.
Bars show 10th–90th percentile range. Tick mark shows mean probability. Analysis by CLAI Model.
Live Intelligence Feed
Scenario Probabilities
Analyst Assessment
Awaiting next sync.
Model Inputs
These 14 variables feed the Bayesian probability model. The AI updates them daily from live news sources. You can manually adjust any slider to explore hypothetical scenarios — changes flow immediately into the scenario probabilities on the left. Confidence % shown next to each value indicates how certain the AI is in its assessment.